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Updated Wednesday, June 3, 2009

The wreckage of Air France Flight #447 has been found in the equatorial Atlantic.  Search planes spotted two debris fields, including one that stretched  across three miles of ocean.  The Air Bus A330 with 228 people on board crashed en route from  Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to Paris.  There are no survivors.

What happened?  The plane went down three hours into an 11-hour flight with no mayday call from the crew.  Despite many theories, the causes of the crash will likely remain a mystery.  Around 4:15 a.m. Paris time, Air France 447 began to send automatic messages to the company's maintenance computers indicating serious electrical problems.  Brazilian authorities say the plane also experienced rapid decompression, meaning it somehow lost pressure in the cabin at 35,000 feet.

The two-engine Airbus A330 has a nearly flawless safety record, according to experts.  The Air France #447 crew was made up of three experienced pilots including a captain with 11,000 hours in flight.

Among the key questions:

• Was it terrorism or foul play? Probably not, according to the Los Angeles Times, which reports that "the investigation was assigned to officials in suburban Bobigny near the (Charles De Gaulle) airport, working with investigators of the paramilitary gendarmerie detailed to the transport secretariat. If foul play were suspected, the case would be handled by prosecutors in Paris and anti-terrorism police."
• Was it lightning? Lightning is a leading suspect and may have triggered some kind of electrical chain reaction, frying the plane's crucial computer systems, but it's unlikely that lightning alone brought down AF 447, according to the French news service AFP.  Commercial airplanes are struck by lightning on average twice a year - or every 1,000 hours - and experts discount the possibility that lightning is the reason for this disaster.
• Was it some kind of catastrophic failure never seen before? Most likely, according to the Associated Press.
• Will we ever know for sure? Maybe not. Locating the plane (or wreckage) will be extremely difficult in a vast area of ocean with depths of 15,000 feet.
• With 600 of these Airbus A330s in service with 82 airlines around the world, how safe is flying? Flying remains extraordinarily safe.  Your risk of death on your next domestic jet flight in the United States is one in 60 million, according to MIT Professor Arnold Barnett, a leading authority on aviation safety statistics.  That means you could fly every day for the next 160,000 years - on average - until you got into trouble.  Your risk of death on your next international jet flight in the industrial world is marginally worse, according to Barnett, but air travel is still remarkably safe.

What follows are some of the myths of air travel and some lessons for your next flight. First, many people believe that everyone always dies in plane crashes. The crash of Air France 447 will surely be added the list of aviation tragedies ingrained in our memories: Valujet 592 in the Florida Everglades. TWA 800 in the Atlantic. Swissair 111 in Nova Scotia. EgyptAir 990 over the Atlantic. Pan Am 103 over Lockerbie.

Despite these disasters, the truth about most airplane accidents is that people do survive. In fact, according to the US government, 95.7 percent of the passengers involved in aviation accidents make it out alive. That's right. When the National Transportation Safety Board studied accidents between 1983 and 2000 involving 53,487 passengers, they found that 51,207 survived. That's 95.7 percent. When you exclude crashes in which no one had a chance of surviving - like Pan Am 103 - the NTSB says the survival rate in the most serious crashes is 76.6 percent. In other words, if your plane crashes, you aren't necessarily doomed, just like the passengers on US Air 1549 in the Hudson.

Second, many people believe that everyone panics and freaks out in a crash. Panic is usually defined as contagious, groundless, unreasoning fear. Fortunately, that kind of panic almost never happens. It's not groundless or unreasonable to scream or cry when you're told to "prepare for impact." Nor is it hysterical or mindless to push toward the exits. That behavior is entirely rational and purposeful. In emergencies, researchers have found, most people actually freeze until they're told what to do. Some people also engage in what's called situational altruism -- they help each other.

Third, in a crash, many people believe there's nothing you can do to save yourself. In truth, however, your life is in your hands. Some experts believe that as many as 30 percent of the deaths in airplane accidents could have been prevented if people knew what to do and took action.

Obviously, some crashes simply aren't survivable.  But in most accidents, you can significantly improve your chances.  Here are four key tips:

1. Sit within five rows of any exit. One British safety expert reviewed seating plans in more than 100 crashes and interviewed nearly 2,000 passengers. He concluded that five rows is the cut-off for getting out of a burning plane. Beyond that range, your chances of survival are much lower. People in aisles seats have higher survival rates than people in window seats.

2. Pay attention to the safety briefing and develop your Plan A and Plan B in the event of an emergency. Count the number of rows to your nearest exit and your backup.

3. Focus on your action plan during the first three minutes of flight and the last eight minutes. That's when around 80 percent of accidents happen. In other words, before takeoff and landing, don't take off your shoes; don't put on a face mask to sleep; and don't wear earphones.

4. Relax. Your chances of dying in a crash on your next flight are extremely small.  Believe it or not, your risk of a stress-related heart attack on an airplane flight is actually greater than the risk of a deadly accident.  So pay attention, make a plan, then sit back, make yourself comfortable, and take a deep breath.

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